Hurricane Harvey on August 25, 2017. Graphic Courtesy: NOAA, National Hurricane Center
The Colorado State University Tropical Meteorology Project released its 2018 hurricane season forecast today, April 5, 2018.
“We anticipate that the 2018 Atlantic basin hurricane season will have slightly above-average activity. The current weak La Niña event appears likely to transition to neutral ENSO over the next several months, but at this point, we do not anticipate a significant El Niño event this summer/fall. The western tropical Atlantic is anomalously warm right now, while portions of the eastern tropical Atlantic and far North Atlantic are anomalously cool. Consequently, our Atlantic Multi-decadal Oscillation index is near its long-term average. We anticipate a slightly above-average probability for major hurricanes making landfall along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As is the case with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season for them. They should prepare the same for every season, regardless of how much activity is predicted.”
— Philip J. Klotzbach1 and Michael M. Bell
in memory of Dr. William Gray
The forecast is based on 29 years of data from 1981-2010.
The CSU early April forecast has 14 named storms, 7 hurricanes and 3 major hurricanes during this year’s Atlantic Hurricane Season, which runs from June 1 through the end of November.
The CSU Tropical Meteorology Project also included the probabilities for a at least one major hurricane, categories 3, 4, 5 and hurricane landfall on each of the following coastal areas:
1) Entire continental U.S. coastline – 63% (average for last century is 52%)
2) U.S. East Coast Including Peninsula Florida – 39% (average for last century is 31%)
3) Gulf Coast from the Florida Panhandle westward to Brownsville – 38% (average for last century is 30%)
Probability for at least one major category 3-4-5 hurricane tracking into the Carribbean (10-20°N, 60-88°W)
1) 52% (average for last century is 42%)