Michael Heads Toward Florida

 

Satellite Image, GIF, Graphics Courtesy: NOAA, NHC

Hurricane Michael is closing in on the Florida panhandle this morning. At 9 a.m. CDT, Time, the category 4, extremely dangerous storm with 145 mph is 65 miles SSW of Panama City, Florida, 70 miles WSW of Appalachicola, Florida—moving north at 13 mph.  The eye of the hurricane is forecast to move over land later today. Many have left the area to get out of the storm’s path.

Ho-Hum RV park in Carrabelle, Florida is empty Tuesday as Hurricane Michael churns toward Florida panhandle. Carrabelle is in Franklin County along Florida’s panhandle and east Apalachicola.  Photo Courtesy: Stephen Jiwanmall, WTXL-TV in Tallahassee.

 

 

“EVERY FAMILY must be prepared. We can rebuild your home, but we cannot rebuild your life,”  Governor Scott tweeted Monday morning.  Governor Scott tweeted Tuesday he has 2,500 Florida National Guard ready and the Florida Highway Patrol is making nearly 350 troopers available for deployment.  Scott says this storm will be devastating.

For updates and help, the State Assistance Information Line (SAIL) is

1-800-342-3557.

Stay tuned to local stations, weather channels, newspapers, national news broadcasts, NHC, NWS, local and state emergency officials social media for more updates on Hurricane Michael.

For updates, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/#Michael

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Here are highlights of the 7 a.m. CDT Wednesday– Hurricane Michael Advisory from the National Hurricane Center in Miami:

NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL142018

700 AM CDT Wed Oct 10 2018 …

POTENTIALLY CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE MICHAEL HEADING TOWARD THE FLORIDA PANHANDLE… …LIFE-THREATENING STORM SURGE…HURRICANE FORCE WINDS…AND HEAVY RAINFALL IMMINENT…

SUMMARY OF 700 AM CDT…1200 UTC…INFORMATION

LOCATION…29.0N 86.3W ABOUT 90 MI…145 KM SW OF PANAMA CITY FLORIDA ABOUT 90 MI…145 KM WSW OF APALACHICOLA FLORIDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED

WINDS…145 MPH…230 KM/H

PRESENT MOVEMENT…N OR 10 DEGREES AT 13 MPH…20 KM/H

MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE…933 MB…27.55 INCHES

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT:

A Storm Surge Warning is in effect for… * Okaloosa/Walton County Line Florida to Anclote River Florida

A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for… * Anclote River Florida to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay

A Hurricane Warning is in effect for… * Alabama/Florida border to Suwannee River Florida

A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for… * Alabama/Florida border to the Mississippi/Alabama border * Suwanee River Florida to Chassahowitzka Florida * North of Fernandina Beach Florida to Surf City North Carolina

A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for… * Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island Florida, including Tampa Bay * Mississippi/Alabama border to the Mouth of the Pearl River * Surf City North Carolina to Duck North Carolina * Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds

DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK

At 700 AM CDT (1200 UTC), the eye of Hurricane Michael was located near latitude 29.0 North, longitude 86.3 West. Michael is moving toward the north near 13 mph (20 km/h). A turn toward the north- northeast is expected later this morning, with a turn toward the northeast expected this afternoon or tonight. A motion toward the northeast at a faster forward speed is forecast on Thursday and Friday. On the forecast track, the eye of Michael is expected to move ashore over the Florida Panhandle later today, move northeastward across the southeastern United States tonight and Thursday, and then move off the Mid-Atlantic coast away from the United States on Friday.

Reports from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate that maximum sustained winds have increased to near 145 mph (230 km/h) with higher gusts. Michael is an extremely dangerous category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible before landfall. After landfall, Michael should weaken as it crosses the southeastern United States. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 45 miles (75 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 185 miles (295 km). A wind gust to 56 mph (91 km/h) was recently reported at Apalachicola Regional Airport. The estimated minimum central pressure based on NOAA and Air Force Reserve Hunter aircraft data is 933 mb (27.55 inches).

HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND —

STORM SURGE: The combination of a dangerous storm surge and the tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water has the potential to reach the following heights above ground if peak surge occurs at the time of high tide…

Tyndall Air Force Base FL to Aucilla River FL…9-14 ft

Okaloosa/Walton County Line FL to Tyndall Air Force Base FL…6-9 ft

Aucilla River FL to Cedar Key FL…6-9 ft

Cedar Key FL to Chassahowitzka FL…4-6 ft

Chassahowitzka to Anna Maria Island FL including Tampa Bay…2-4 ft

RAINFALL: Michael is expected to produce the following rainfall amounts through Friday… Florida Panhandle and Big Bend, southeast Alabama, and portions of southwest and central Georgia…4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 12 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. The remainder of Georgia, the Carolinas, and southern Virginia…3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum amounts of 8 inches. This rainfall could lead to life-threatening flash floods. Florida Peninsula, eastern Mid Atlantic, southern New England coast…1-3 inches.

SURF: Swells generated by Michael will affect the coasts of the eastern, northern, and western Gulf of Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. TORNADOES: A few tornadoes will be possible across parts of the Florida Panhandle and the northern Florida Peninsula through this afternoon. This risk will spread into parts of central and southern Georgia and southern South Carolina this afternoon and tonight.

NEXT ADVISORY ————

Next complete advisory at 1000 AM CDT.

$$ Forecaster Brown

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